image
"Accepting the Unknowable Future"
by
Ruth Barrons Roosevelt

Some people have an inordinate need to be right. Deep inside they feel that something terrible will happen if they're wrong about something. This can have two effects on their trading. First, such a trader cannot act quickly. She will hesitate before entering a trade and once in may hesitate to get out.She's always looking for confirmation because she needs to be right. By the time confirmation comes, however, it's usually too late. Second, such a trader may be so endowed with the need to be right that she cannot receive information contrary to her position.

I have seen people for whom it is more important to be right than to curtail a loss. I'm thinking of one particular man who let a short position on a stock go 60 points against him. He had most of his money and a lot of his clients money in the trade. He'd written document after document on the company that had no earnings and would not for some time. But there was a story that excited people about the future of the company. They were betting on future earnings. This man was powerless to cover the short position. His self esteem was dependent on being right. He put stops above the highs and cancelled them as the stock rose. He lost another 40 points for a total of 100. Only when the pain of losing any more money was greater than the need to be right was he able to take off the position.

Since the successful trader has no particular need to be right, he can keep an open mind to the information that the market gives him. He won't pit himself against the market. He can want what the market wants and go with the flow. He can accept the inherent rightness of the market.

The future, alas, is not knowable. All we have are probabilities. A profitable trader accepts uncertainty and even enjoys the unknowable quality of the process. It is here that the fun, excitement, and interest lie. As well as the game. After all, if we could know for certain, the game would be over.

Page 2

Click Article Name. Then click GO

 

Pageimage 1image 2image