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"Accepting the Unknowable Future"
by
Ruth Barrons Roosevelt

Are you the kind of person who sneaks a look at the last chapter of the page turner you're reading? I am. Unfortunately, you can't do it when you trade. Nor can you do it with your life. The wildness lies in wait as does the tedium.

Successful traders realize that the future is not knowable. They understand that all they have are simple probabilities. And they trust that probabilities utilized over time are sufficient. They are able to be friendly and comfortable with uncertainty even as they prepare for the improbable to occur. Just because you've never seen a black swan or a purple swan does not mean there are none.

Successful traders take precautions before a trade goes against them. This means they will always manage the risk by using actual or mental stop loss orders. They limit the size of their trades because they know they don't know.

Acceptance of inevitable uncertainty creates an important difference in the way you trade. When the outcome of any trade is uncertain, and you fully accept that uncertainty; you will not be blinded by stories or opinions. You understand that so called gurus and experts don't know the future either. You will not over-trade or under-trade. You will protect yourself against undue risk. You will be willing to act in a timely fashion because you understand that you will never have certainty until it's history, and even then it's sometimes murky.

The random event or set of circumstances waits to happen. You don't dwell on it, but you do buy your insurance through proper risk management and flexibility of mind.

It is not your job as a trader to know whether any given trade will be a winner or loser. Realizing this, you relieve yourself of a huge burden. It is your job to recognize your entry and exit signals and act upon them. You feel no need to second guess yourself because you've created methods that put the probabilities in your favor, and those probabilities will work for you over time, just not every time.

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